Thankful For The Decline of Sleepy Donald
Some random thoughts.
A third of 2024 Trump voters do not consider themselves to be MAGA, and many of those are clearly turning on Trump, blaming him for a bad economy, and for abuse of power. This is part of a broader trend exposed in a recent Politico poll showing a roughly 60-40 split among 2024 Trump supporters, with that ratio defining MAGA-non MAGA, feelings on personal economic situation, feeling “better off than a year ago” vs not, etc. Putting this a slightly different way, if Trump captured just over half of the country’s votes in 2024, he’s solidly lost a conservative 10-15 percent of those, with an additional 10-15 percent also turning against him, but with that second proportion a bit soft.
Trump’s methodology for retaining power has involved cutting the heads off of anyone rising in power or prominence. This means that when Trump fades, dies, or loses, MAGA is not going to have a leader.
Democrats tend to do better in special elections than do Republicans. Over the last several special elections across the country, Democrats have done WAY BETTER than republicans in special elections. I expect a Big Beautiful Blue Wave. Even if Democrats fuck it up a little, which they will do.
The rise of political violence is horrible, and we are all negatively affected by it. But there is an absurd and disturbing silver(ish) lining from the totality of recent events: It is now indubitably clear even to both-siderists that the right wing is the violent wing, and left wing is hardly violent at all (just a little). This is a silver lining because it breaks the bothsiderism a modest amount, though this should have been obvious for quite a few years.
We are watching Trump’s physical and mental decline, though there seems to be the occasional plateau. But I think we are seeing the beginning of another big slide. His responses to reporters have gotten more severe, demented, insulting, and dangerous. His response to the slaying of a National Guard soldier and wounding of another is immature and panicky. He is falling asleep more than usual. He seems to go to the hospital a lot, and the lie about the results.
The gripless MTG loosing her grip and the gripless Trump losing her grip on her is one of a series of attritional events in both Trump’s power base and in the US House. It is (remotely) possible that Trump’s party could lose the House before November.
Election season, for November 2026, has started. We need to be smart, not kick each other in the shins too much, remember who the enemy is and who our allies are, even the imperfect ones. Have the pro-progressive fight in the early stages of this process, but don’t do what we’ve done so often in the past (that put Trump in power in the first place).
In 2016 in Arizona I volunteered for Bernie, and it may have been in part because I was dating a Bernie organizer. But I did align with his positions more than I did with Hillary's, so it wasn't entirely a ruse. But I ended up removing my Sanders bumper sticker from my car and dropping my t-shirt off at Goodwill because I couldn't relate to the hatred that many of the progressives I volunteered with had, and still have for her. If not for those "Bernie Bro" types (which included women,) we may have seen Trump slump up the same escalator he came down in the first place.