Enviro-Misconceptions and Wrongness
Climate change acceleration myth; He
Is climate change accelerating? No.
A subset of climate change scientists and activists are known in the mainstream science community as doomers. These are often credentialed and legitimate scientists who prefer the scarier interpretations of data, and who tend to have hair-on-fire reactions that they pass on to the general public. This does not help us in the broader mission of helping the public understand the science. Assertions that underestimate the amount of warming or the severity of effects do not help; assertions that overshoot the mark also do not help.
In November, 2023, James Hansen, former director of the NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), made the claim, true to form for him, that global warming is accelerating. This got a fair amount of news coverage initially, but I think that attention itself accelerated mid winter, possibly owing to the preternaturally warm Northern Hemisphere cold season (caused by El Niño). Much of the argument is summarized in a Guardian article from last November.
The part of the Guardian article I want you to read is this:
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said that Hansen and his co-authors are “very much out of the mainstream” in identifying an acceleration in surface heating that has “continued at a remarkably constant rate for the past few decades”. Mann said that cuts to shipping emissions have only a tiny effect on the climate system and that calls for solar geoengineering are misguided and a “very slippery slope”.
See also this tweet by Mann.
The long and the short of it: the models we use today are accurate, climate change is happening at the rate expected and predicted. That is bad news, we don’t need to add a false acceleration to the bad news.
He
Regardless of one’s preference for pronouns, “He” is always Helium, the second element on the Periodic Table, and one of the main constituents of stars, though rare on Earth. It is an important element used in medicine and technology.
There is a limited supply of Helium, and recent estimates suggested that we will run out of it in a century or two.* Completely. That may not seem too worrisome, but Helium is one of those things that makes a very large amount of our technology work at all, and it can’t be replaced. So, when the Helium runs out we go right back into the 19th century, or if we are lucky, maybe the Stone Age, which was probably better than the industrial 19th for a lot of people.
Recently, He was discovered in northern Minnesota. When that happened, I observed a number of hair-on-fire reactions that disturbed me because the concerns being expressed did not match my understanding of He origins and extraction. So, I did some research, confirmed my own belief system, and at this time, it would be my pleasure to substitute yours with mine, if you don’t mind. I’ll put this in the format of a Q&A between “them,” imaginary questioners on the Internet, and me, an imaginary expert on He.
All we have to do to avoid running out of Helium is to stop with those silly Helium balloons. Right?
No. Well, yes, stop with the silly Helium balloons, it is a ridiculous use and waste of a precious resource. Plus, when the balloons escape and float away, they become a rare but probably especially nasty form of litter.
But, no, that will not solve the Helium crisis. The total amount of Helium that is used for that is very small, and also, not pure. As Helium is used, it can become less and less pure, and at some point, some of it becomes so impure it is useless as helium, but still works to inflate balloons and make your voice sound like Alvin the Chipmunk. If we are going to run out of Helium in 184 years from now, curtailing silly uses might make that into 178 years (made up number, but you get the point).
Having said that, there may be less silly but still non-essential uses for Helium that could be curtailed. I know of a science crew that uses Helium to make vast amounts of instant ice cream for parties on special occasions, once every few years. Maybe they should not do that. There are probably other wasteful practices. But no, the assumption that if we stop buying party balloons that the Helium crisis will go away is 100% incorrect.
If we “mine” helium in Minnesota, that will involve fracking.
Probably, but that might not be as bad as it sounds. Fracking for methane is generally extensive, extra dirty, and has huge effects on the water table. Fracking in water wells, which is also done, has very small and local effects, mainly helping an old well to produce a little more water. I think any fracking associated with Helium mining would be very different than for mining for oil or methane.
Having said that, regulatory agencies in Minnesota should get right on this and make sure that fracking is minimal and reasonable. Extensive and intensive fracking is very bad, but not all fracking is the same; perhaps it can be relatively benign.
Helium is “mined” out of Methane, so Helium mining is Methane mining, and either the methane will be released into the atmosphere or contribute to the fossil fuel supply, right?
No. It is true that much, most really, of our Helium comes from Methane deposits, but that is because some commercial level Methane has enough Helium mixed in with it to make it worth extracting. Helium is NOT a natural co-occurring element with Methane. The two gasses originate from utterly and ridiculously different sources. But both are gasses that originate underground, so that is where they are sometimes trapped together. (Pretty much true: Gas underground contains Nitrogen, Methane, CO2, Helium, and a few other things, always, but the relative amounts of those different gasses varies wildly. There is no pure anything anywhere.)
Methane originates from bio-chemical processes at or relatively near the surface (though “near” can be quite deep) and some of it is trapped under less porous rock. Helium is a fission byproduct mainly from Uranium. Uranium is roughly uniformly distributed in the Earth’s mantle, and somewhat less uniformly in the crust. Therefore Helium atoms originate at all depths. However, being small and noble (as in, not reactive with other atoms) most Helium atoms gas out of the Earth, enter the atmosphere, and then leave our planet behind. Some, however, are trapped beneath certain rock strata.
In the Minnesota case, Helium is not associated with Methane deposits. (Methane is everywhere so yes, there will be trace amounts of methane with the Helium, but mostly, Nitrogen.) I’ve been told by the company looking at Helium at this site that the Helium is primarily associated with Nitrogen, Hydrogen, and Carbon Dioxide, and that the CO2 would probably be sequestered and sold commercially (Minnesota apparently imports its CO2).**
Indeed, this Helium deposit could both extend the time before we re-enter the Neolithic and do so with less of an excuse to also mine Methane. This Helium deposit could be excellent news for the environment for Minnesota, since it might help address the mining-lust that embraces our northern communities while at the same time not doing any real damage. And, of course, jobs.
*You will find two species of estimate for when we are likely to run out of Helium. One is about 20-30 years from now, the other in centuries. The lower estimate is based on the existing Helium pipeline and current markets, which make the estimate for US Helium look low because the US Helium supply is mostly being exported. This lower estimate is also probably flawed because it is based on how we currently obtain Helium, which is likely very different from how we will get Helium. We are going to stop mining Methane in the near(ish) future, which means we will have to completely change the overall approach to finding and mining Helium. That will mean that deposits like those discovered recently in Minnesota, a cleaner and potentially richer source, will predominate. Only after that starts to happen will we actually be able to measure how big our Helium supply will be. By the way, Helium is a produce of fusion, of the kind done not only in the Sun, but in experimental fusion reactors. Fusion is said to be the future energy source that will be ready “in 40 years,” and we’ve been hearing “40 years” for about 60 years now. So, if that ever happens: new source of Helium! Yay!
** Personal communication, Marc Farrington. See also this press release.
Thank you for this primer on helium mining. This leads me to support the industry, which is poised to bring much needed jobs to my district.